Preparing for the 4th Quarter: What to Know and What to Do

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Here, ABA CEO Allison Hill offers information on challenges booksellers may face heading into the 4th quarter as well as actions they can take to prepare for an uncertain holiday season.

The uncertainty of the last six months has come to a head. Many stores are on precarious ground going into this critical 4th quarter, and all are faced with the challenge of preparing for an uncertain holiday season.

Here’s what we do know: Demand for books has been high during the COVID pandemic and is expected to remain high. The combined impact of stores closed due to shelter-in-place mandates and consumers fearful of crowds could drive online demand to unprecedented highs.

At the same time, publishers and wholesalers will be filling orders more slowly due to social distancing at their warehouses. Printers, also at reduced capacity due to social distancing, may not be able to reprint out-of-stock books in a timely manner. Every link in the supply chain can be slowed down by a COVID diagnosis and the subsequent work halt and cleaning requirements. The USPS cuts will slow down delivery service and shift shipping to the already overburdened UPS, which is now implementing surge pricing for large customers; it’s yet to be seen whether that will trickle down to stores.

According to the omnichannel commerce technology company Radial, 60 percent of U.S. shoppers say they are planning to shop less in-store this holiday season due to COVID fears. According to another recent poll, 52 percent of U.S. shoppers said they plan on spending the same amount on gifts this holiday season as they did last season. (HC US Proprietary Reader Community; Quick Poll, August 10-11, 2020)

ABA has been working on ways to mitigate risks and help stores plan and prepare for a successful season. Here’s Part I of what you need to be thinking about as we enter the 4th quarter:

EDUCATION

What to Know:

ABA launched the first in a seven-part education series on preparing for the 4th quarter with this week’s webinar on the “Top 10 Things to Know About: Buying Monthly.” Stores can get the information from these sessions in multiple ways: attend the webinar (watch for registration links in BTW), watch the recording (in ABA’s Education Resources), or read a summary of the key takeaways after each session (on the Top 10 BookWeb page).

What to Do:

Attend, watch, or read about the Q4 prep education series for Top 10 Things on:

  • Managing Cash Flow (September 10 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
  • Improving Operational Workflow (September 17 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
  • Leveraging Customer and Sales Data (October 1 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
  • Leveraging ABA’s Fall Marketing Campaign (October 8 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
  • Creating Safe and Profitable Virtual Events (October 15 at 3:00 p.m. ET)
  • Keeping Calm and Carrying On (in a World of Face Masks, Hand Sanitizer, Race Relations, and Election Tensions) (October 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Watch for additional Q4 topics to be covered in BTW:

  • Top 10 Morale Boosters and Self-Care Tips
  • Top 10 Tips for Curbside and Delivery Service
  • Top 10 Things to Know About Hiring, Training, and Managing Remote Workers
  • Top 10 Tips for Ordering Calendars and Nonreturnables

MARKETING

What to Know:

ABA is excited to announce that we’ve hired DCX, Ad Age’s Best Small Agency of 2019, to create a fall marketing campaign for indie bookstores. The DCX team has experience with and passion for small business, as well as national campaign experience. They have a creative, clever approach and a proven track record of generating media coverage. They commit 20 percent of their profits to campaigns for social causes, and 30 percent of DCX employees are people of color and the company has a history of working with minority-owned businesses. Most importantly, they are thrilled to be working on behalf of independent bookstores.

What to Do:

  • Watch for upcoming announcements about how to amplify and assist with ABA’s fall marketing campaign for the indies
  • Launch your own “Buy Early, Buy Local” holiday shopping campaign to help customers understand how early shopping helps your store and why it’s necessary for them, as this year late shoppers risk low inventory and shipping disruptions.
  • Help customers ease back into shopping. Some of your customers may be skittish about shopping in the real world again. This short video by author Mary Lea Carroll is a good example of an easy way to help customers acclimate: Show customers your safety measures in action, demonstrate the normalcy of the store environment, and remind them how much they miss your bookstore. A video on social media and your website can go a long way toward bringing people in this season.
  • Create a “PAC” — not a political action committee, but a publicity action community. Reach out to some of your most loyal and connected customers to ask for their help spreading the word about supporting your store this holiday season. Consider Malcolm Gladwell’s “connectors,” “salesmen,” and “mavens,” and create a group of all three to be ambassadors for your store, writing op-eds, sharing about your store on social media, and lobbying your city and schools to support your store.
  • Write an op ed for the local paper or pitch an interview with your local NPR affiliate

SUPPLY CHAIN

What to Know:

We anticipate many supply chains being slowed or disrupted by COVID at some point during Q4.

What to Do:

  • Anticipate the need for gift cards, gift certificates, bags, register supplies, toilet paper, and other critical items. Order up and order early.
  • Order up and early on books. Recognizing the difficult juggling act of managing cash and credit limits and the uncertainty of this year’s forecasts, booksellers will still need to prioritize stocking up early this year and ordering up on titles they anticipate to be hot. Placing orders early will ensure you have what you need regardless of how early the season starts or whether it is disrupted. Orders placed further into the season may be unavailable or have delays in shipping.

SHIPPERS

What to Know:

Shippers are one of the critical links in the supply chain.

What to Do:

  • Lobby for support of USPS and ask your customers to do the same.
  • Sign up or re-enroll with PartnerShip in the coming weeks. ABA is signing a new agreement that will give members significantly greater FedEx discounts: 50 percent on FedEx Express with no weight tiers and 30 percent on FedEx ground with no weight tiers. (Already participating members must re-enroll to receive the new rates.) Watch for the announcement next week.
  • Double-check the shipping rates you’re charging customers and posting on your website. If you’re offering customers free or reduced shipping, offer them the option of supporting your store by paying the full shipping price

INVENTORY

What to Know:

It’s no surprise that consumer trends have changed during COVID. There’s an increased interest in DIY, cooking, homeschooling materials, spirituality, and self-care, and a decreased interest in entertaining and travel. Trending searches include: canning, macramé, crochet, plant propagation, dehydrating food, knitting, gratitude, meditation, life coaching, laughter yoga, herbalism, spiritual awakening, aromatherapy, stickers, and dot-to-dot books for adults.

What to Do:

  • Order with new trends in mind. Review your top 100 books since March and use Google trends to look for other clues.
  • Modify book sections in your stores. De-emphasize some sections to make room for face-outs in other sections. Create new sections for our time: antiracism, the 2020 election, quarantine, self-care in the time of COVID. These can be in-store displays or themes for website categories or social media.
  • Rethink your sales floor to reflect the way people shop. Customers may be in your store for a shorter period of time, because of your social distancing design (appointments, limited shopping times) or due to their own comfort level. There may be less browsing and discovery. Think about how to expedite shopping for customers while maximizing sales.

INGRAM

What to Know:

ABA has been in conversation with Ingram about both the anticipated demand for the indies and Ingram’s preparation for Q4. Ingram is hiring seasonal associates and increasing shift hours; they have ordered up early to have seasonal books a month earlier than last year; they’re working with their transportation partners to anticipate challenges; and they’ve increased customer service staffing.

What to Do:

  • Ingram recommends stores stock up on anticipated hot titles as early as possible and will be announcing promotions in October to encourage stores to stock up. (Orders placed in October will be shipped and received faster than orders placed closer to the holidays.)
  • To help Ingram predict demand, communicate with your Ingram rep about anticipated hot titles and books you plan on featuring in your store catalog or promotions.

INDIECOMMERCE

What to Know:

The IndieCommerce team has been working on improvements to prepare for Q4.

What to Do:

  • Streamline ecommerce transactions and process orders more quickly:

    • Make sure you’re up and running with IndieCommerce POS integration for iMerchant, IBID, Booklog, and Anthology. If you haven’t used this yet, start using it now to be up to speed for the holidays.
    • Know how to use bulk order processing functionality
    • Know how to use the bulk invoice printing functionality
    • Set up shipping integration with Stamps.com, Pirate, or ShipEasy shipping software (AMS webship is in progress). The latter two are free services.
  • Know how to create sidelines/nonbook in bulk for your site and manage stock in IndieCommerce
  • Know how IC can help you:

  • There are many resources available in the IndieCommerce Help Center.
  • Check for potential fraudulent “customers.” This new tool could help you avoid fraudulent orders and save you time and money.
  • Report suspected fraudulent orders to [email protected] with “Fraud Order” in the subject line. Please also include the order number in your email.

CREDIT CARD PROCESSING

What to Know:

Sudden spikes in demand can flag your credit card processing account for suspicion of fraud.

What to Do:

  • Communicate with your credit card processor about your forecast for Q4 and again if extenuating circumstances occur during the season. This will help you avoid having funds withheld or your ecommerce shut down during the busy season, which unfortunately happened to a store recently.
  • If you’re an IndieCommerce store, make sure you set up your own credit card processor for IndieCommerce by October 1. Information on how to do this can be found on BookWeb.

ACCOUNTS PAYABLE

What to Know:

Accounts payable is often reactive: paying bills. But accounts payable for Q4 needs to be proactive: think cash flow and payment management.

What to Do:

  • Revisit payment plans with publishers, wholesalers, and vendors. Plans that were set up months ago may need to be recalibrated due to changes in circumstances, or re-balanced depending on your needs for Q4.
  • Check in with publishers now:

    • Whether you’re in good standing or have a good understanding with publishers and wholesalers, check in with them to ensure that nothing will prevent you from receiving books for Q4
    • Make sure your credit limit is high enough for the season
  • Check out American Express’ new policy letting green, gold, and platinum cardholders pay off certain purchases over longer periods, with interest, beginning in November.

ADVOCACY

What to Know:

ABA is still actively advocating on behalf of bookstores toward:

  • Funding USPS and reversing operational changes that slow mail delivery
  • Creating a refundable tax credit like the Healthy Workplaces tax credit for PPE, temperature testing, and COVID-19 testing/antibody testing
  • Creating a COVID-19 recovery fund similar to the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund
  • Arguing for a comprehensive report and investigation into Amazon's anticompetitive business strategies

What to Do:

INDIEBOUND

What to Know:

  • ABA is updating IndieBound in time for Q4
  • 2,953,538 people have visited IndieBound since March 1
  • 309,925 visitors have used the IndieBound indie bookstore finder since March 1

What to Do:

  • Make sure your IndieBound information is accurate and that the links work. If not, email [email protected] with corrections
  • Watch for an email from ABA this week with the email addresses of shoppers, many from your area, who clicked on IndieBound and expressed interest in hearing more from their local bookstore. These are new customers who have expressed interest in shopping indie, a list of what’s known as a “warm lead” but that can easily become a list of hot leads with holiday shopping imminent.

BOOKSHOP

What to Know:

Stores have varying opinions about Bookshop, but more than 800 indie bookstores are now Bookshop affiliates and over 900 participate in Bookshop’s pool program.

What to Do:

If you’re a brick-and-mortar store, email [email protected] to:

  • Sign up for the pool money: 10 percent of regular sales on Bookshop.org are added to an earnings pool that is evenly divided and distributed to ABA brick-and-mortar independent bookstores every six months.
  • Set up an affiliate page either as an additional platform for your store, or as a backup in case you’re unable to fulfill orders during Q4 for some reason. As an affiliate, your store is added to the Bookshop store finder, receives a 30 percent commission on sales, and receives customer order information.

CONTINGENCY PLANS

What to Know:

COVID conditions are still fluid. It’s critical for stores to have contingency plans before Q4 starts.

What to Do:

  • In anticipation of a bookseller or customer contracting COVID:

    • Decide your store’s policy ahead of time and review it with staff.
    • Review CDC guidelines for how to handle exposure in your store
    • Have a cleaning service on speed dial
    • Prepare a list of nearby testing facilities
    • Know what your store’s health insurance plan covers related to COVID, such as testing fees
    • Offer health insurance for employees through ABA’s partnership with LIG
  • In anticipation of circumstances requiring staff to work from home, to fill orders remotely:

    • Know how to activate your remote POS system and test the system ahead of time to make sure it’s working properly
    • Review technology security protocol for employees working remotely, such as using password-protected WiFi
    • Make sure staff is trained
    • Have equipment ready
  • In anticipation of adding curbside pickup, know how to enable curbside pickup as an option on your IndieCommerce site
  • In anticipation of adding delivery, inform your insurance company if employees are making deliveries
  • In anticipation of weather (with a nod to recent tornadoes, fires, and hurricanes):

    • Review your insurance policies and make sure they’re current and comprehensive
    • Have supplies on hand
    • Train staff on emergency procedures
    • Make sure you have a current employee phone list and emergency contact list for everyone

STAFF

What to Know:

Communication is key.

What to Do:

  • Hold an all-staff meeting and individual staff meetings to:

    • Share the goals for 4th quarter
    • Share safety plans
    • Share contingency plans
    • Check in with people about how they’re doing, what their concerns are, and what support they need
  • Consider employees’ (and your own) mental health and self-care needs:

    • 40 percent of people surveyed in June by the CDC said they had experienced a mental or behavioral health condition related to the coronavirus epidemic. 25.5 percent of respondents said they had experienced symptoms of anxiety disorder and 24.3 percent said they had experienced symptoms of depression during the pandemic. Support and self-care are an important priority for Q4 for you and your staff.
    • Share mental health and other resources:

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